The banking infrastructure is loosing the game to mobile.

The Banking Infrastructure Is Bleeding: Mobile Money and the Global Bypass of Traditional Banks

The global banking system is experiencing a profound transformation. Traditional banking infrastructure is rapidly losing ground to the ubiquity of mobile phones and the rise of agent-based and telco-led financial services. The numbers reveal a structural shift that is bypassing banks—especially in rural and low-income markets—at an unprecedented scale.

ATMs vs. Mobile Phones: The Scale of Displacement

There are just 2.95 million ATMs worldwide, compared to 8.3 billion active mobile phones (BankMyCell, 2025). This means that for every ATM, there are about 2,820 cellphones. In rural areas, which account for 43% of the world’s population (World Bank, SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS), the ATM is increasingly irrelevant. The future of financial transactions is mobile, and the numbers confirm it.

Deposit Outflows and Digital Growth

In 2024, U.S. banks recorded their first deposit decline since 1995—a 4.8% drop (FinTech Weekly). Meanwhile, digital-first banks such as N26 reported revenue growth of 40% in the same period. Over 55% of U.S. customers now primarily manage their finances through mobile apps, and the global digital banking market is projected to reach $22.3 trillion by 2026 (EMB Global). Challenger banks and fintechs are not merely supplementing the market—they are capturing its core.

Shrinking Physical Presence

Major banks are closing branches at an unprecedented rate. NatWest closed 53 branches in 2025 alone, while HSBC’s digital transition has been described as “sluggish” (Finextra). The contraction of physical banking infrastructure is a global phenomenon.

Fintechs and Challenger Banks: Rapid Customer Acquisition

Trust Bank in Singapore became the country’s fourth-largest retail bank in just over a year, surpassing one million customers (The Straits Times). JPMorgan Chase’s UK digital platform reached 1.6 million customers in 2023 (Reuters). The revenue gap is widening: while legacy banks struggle for marginal deposit growth, digital-first banks are expanding at rates of 40% or more.

Micro-Transactions: The Global Bypass

The migration of micro-transactions away from traditional banks is most visible in rural and low-income markets, where agent networks and mobile money services—often run by telcos—have become the default. The Dominican Republic provides a concrete example of the scale of this bypass, even in the absence of a local fintech ecosystem.

Population (mid-2024 est.): 11.5 million
Rural share (official data): ≈ 85%
Rural population using only feature phones (field surveys): ≈ 70%
Active mobile phones (all types, global): 8.3 billion (BankMyCell, 2025)
Feature (“button”) phones still in use (global): ≈ 1.1 billion (13%)
Average fee for a sub-US $5 bank transfer in LICs: US $0.50–0.90 (10–18%) (MoneyTransfers)

Assuming each rural adult in the Dominican Republic makes one US $5 peer-to-peer transfer per day using a mobile wallet or agent network (with no bank involvement), and that a traditional domestic bank transfer of the same size would cost approximately US $0.60 in fees (mid-point of the 50 DOP Caribe-Express tariff):

Rural users: 11.5 million × 85% ≈ 9.8 million
Annual transfer flow: 9.8 million × $5 × 365 ≈ US $17.8 billion
Forgone fee income: 9.8 million × $0.60 × 365 ≈ US $2.1 billion per year

Result: In this scenario, banks in the Dominican Republic forfeit approximately US $2 billion in fee revenue annually on micro-payments alone, while US $17–18 billion in transaction volume bypasses the formal banking rails. The same pattern is observable in many other countries with high rural populations and widespread mobile phone use.

Global Perspective: The Scale of Bypassed Banking

Extrapolating this model globally:

Global rural population: ≈ 3.4 billion (World Bank)
Assume 30% of those adults (≈ 1.0 billion) have access to a feature phone and mobile wallet/agent.
Each makes one US $5 transfer per day.
Average legacy-bank fee if using the formal system: 10% (US $0.50).
Daily volume bypassing banks: 1.02 billion × $5 ≈ US $5.1 billion
Annual volume bypassing banks: US $1.86 trillion
Annual fee revenue forfeited: 10% × 1.86 trillion ≈ US $186 billion

Even if only one in four rural residents transacts daily and the average fee is halved, the annual loss remains between US $40–90 billion.

Structural Barriers to Reversal

Physical reach: ATMs number just 2.95 million worldwide—a 2,800:1 ratio versus mobile phones. Branch networks are shrinking by 3–7% annually in most low-income countries.
Cost structure: An on-us rural ATM transaction costs a bank approximately US $0.25–0.35 to service. Agent/mobile-money networks operate at less than US $0.08 per transaction, often subsidized by telcos.
Device reality: Over a billion users have no smartphone; USSD/SMS wallets are their only digital finance channel. Banks rarely support USSD directly, while agent networks and telcos do.
Behavioural lock-in: Once users trust a mobile wallet or agent for daily micro-transactions, larger remittances and savings migrate there as well, accelerating deposit leakage (already −4.8% in the U.S. legacy sector in 2024).

Lessons from M-Pesa: Missed Opportunities and Global Impact

A similar model has already demonstrated its transformative power elsewhere. In Kenya, M-Pesa—a mobile money service launched by Safaricom and Vodafone—now processes over $300 billion in transactions annually, with 51 million users and 59% of Kenya’s GDP flowing through its rails (Forbes, 2024). M-Pesa’s success was not the result of a bank-led initiative, but of a telco’s willingness to serve the unbanked and underbanked with simple, accessible technology.

Notably, Visa did not acquire M-Pesa. Instead, in 2022, M-Pesa and Visa partnered to launch the M-Pesa GlobalPay virtual Visa card, enabling M-Pesa users to make international online payments (Safaricom). The ownership of M-Pesa remains with Safaricom and Vodacom, who acquired the brand from Vodafone in 2020.

In 2013, a project with similar ambitions was proposed to banks in the Dominican Republic, aiming to bring agent-based, mobile-enabled financial services to rural populations. The proposal was dismissed as “excess service.” In contrast, M-Pesa’s model has since generated billions in revenue and transformed financial inclusion in multiple countries.

Conclusion: A Structural Shift, Not a Passing Trend

In countries with high rural populations and limited banking infrastructure, billions in annual fee income are bypassed on micro-transactions, with trillions in transaction volume moving outside the formal banking system. Globally, over $186 billion in micro-transaction revenue is now captured by telco-led or agent-based rails—roughly double the combined 2024 profits of the five largest U.S. banks.

The data is unambiguous: the migration of micro-transactions to mobile and agent networks is not a marginal trend, but a fundamental reordering of the financial landscape. The infrastructure and business models of traditional banks are being outpaced by the scale, efficiency, and reach of mobile-first and agent-based solutions—especially in rural and low-income markets.

Sources:

For further context on the 2013 project offered to Dominican banks, see:

The numbers, trends, and structural realities point to a new era in financial services—one where mobile and agent-based platforms are not just competing with, but overtaking, traditional banking infrastructure, especially in rural and low-income markets.